Blackjack odds of a dealer bust, upcard by upcard
The table holds the dealer bust chance for every upcard, for six and eight decks, standing or hitting on soft 17. It removes only the upcard from the shoe and ignores your cards. The ace row counts hands where the dealer turns over a natural, which is why it looks so low. The peek section below separates those hands.
| Dealer upcard | 6 decks, S17 | 6 decks, H17 | H17 adds (points) | 8 decks, S17 | 8 decks, H17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A (before peek) | 11.55% | 13.91% | +2.36 | 11.54% | 13.91% |
| 2 | 35.35% | 35.67% | +0.32 | 35.35% | 35.67% |
| 3 | 37.42% | 37.70% | +0.28 | 37.41% | 37.69% |
| 4 | 39.58% | 39.85% | +0.27 | 39.55% | 39.81% |
| 5 | 41.84% | 41.96% | +0.12 | 41.79% | 41.91% |
| 6 | 42.28% | 43.93% | +1.65 | 42.29% | 43.93% |
| 7 | 26.19% | 26.19% | 0.00 | 26.20% | 26.20% |
| 8 | 24.37% | 24.37% | 0.00 | 24.40% | 24.40% |
| 9 | 22.92% | 22.92% | 0.00 | 22.90% | 22.90% |
| 10, J, Q, K | 21.25% | 21.25% | 0.00 | 21.24% | 21.24% |
| All upcards, weighted | 28.19% | 28.58% | +0.39 | 28.18% | 28.57% |
Read the split between 6 and 7 first. Every upcard from 2 to 6 busts more than a third of the time, and every upcard from 7 up busts about a quarter of the time or less. That cliff is the whole logic behind standing on stiff hands against a small card. Six decks and eight decks barely differ anywhere.
The weighted bottom row tells you how often the dealer busts over a long session, counting the ten-value cards four times as often as any other rank. Roughly 28 dealer hands in 100 end over 21. The other 72 finish on a total you have to beat, tie, or lose to. That ratio is the backdrop for every decision.
What hitting soft 17 does to each upcard
A soft 17 counts an ace as 11. Under S17 the dealer stops there, and under H17 draws again. The fourth column shows the effect per upcard, and it is uneven. The ace gains 2.36 points of busts and the 6 gains 1.65, while the 2 to 5 move by a third of a point or less.
The reason is how a soft 17 arises. An ace and a 6 make it at once, so those two upcards meet the rule constantly. A dealer starting on 2 to 5 reaches soft 17 only through three or more cards, such as 2, ace and 4. From 7 or higher it is impossible, so those rows stay identical.
More busts sound like good news for the player, yet the H17 rule still costs money. The extra card also turns many dealer 17s into 18 to 21, and those totals beat hands you would have pushed or won. Our house edge calculator switches the soft 17 rule on and off and puts a house-edge figure on that trade.
Why the 6 busts more than the 5, and when it does not
The 6 earns its name as the bust card through the most common card in the shoe. A ten-value card arrives 4 times in 13, and on a 6 it makes 16, the worst total the dealer can hold. On a 5 the same card makes 15. Both must draw again, but 16 breaks on more of the next cards.
The ace pulls the other way. A 6 and an ace make soft 17, where an S17 dealer stops, so that path never busts. A 5 and an ace make soft 16, which keeps drawing. At six decks the two effects nearly cancel, 42.28% against 41.84%. Once the dealer hits soft 17, the gap widens to almost two points.
Deck count decides the order at the margin. In single-deck play with the dealer standing on soft 17, the 5 busts 42.89% of the time and the 6 only 42.08%. Each card removed from one deck shifts the odds more than in a shoe. Strategy for single-deck tables differs in a few places for exactly this kind of reason.
Dealer final-total probability for six upcards
Busting is one line of the picture. The table below shows where the dealer actually finishes for six common upcards with six decks, standing on soft 17, plus the 6 and the ace under H17. The last column picks out busts on exactly 22, which matters at tables that push instead of paying when the dealer lands there.
| Upcard (6 decks) | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Natural | Bust | of which 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, S17 | 13.97% | 13.44% | 13.00% | 12.40% | 11.84% | 0.00% | 35.35% | 15.13% |
| 5, S17 | 12.18% | 12.24% | 11.76% | 11.18% | 10.79% | 0.00% | 41.84% | 9.35% |
| 6, S17 | 16.57% | 10.62% | 10.64% | 10.16% | 9.73% | 0.00% | 42.28% | 8.52% |
| 6, H17 | 11.51% | 11.46% | 11.50% | 11.02% | 10.59% | 0.00% | 43.93% | 8.93% |
| 7, S17 | 36.92% | 13.79% | 7.84% | 7.87% | 7.38% | 0.00% | 26.19% | 6.46% |
| 10, S17 | 11.19% | 11.17% | 11.19% | 34.00% | 3.48% | 7.72% | 21.25% | 5.23% |
| A, S17 | 13.00% | 13.08% | 13.06% | 13.09% | 5.35% | 30.87% | 11.55% | 3.14% |
| A, H17 | 5.73% | 14.28% | 14.29% | 14.33% | 6.59% | 30.87% | 13.91% | 3.72% |
The 7 finishes on exactly 17 in 36.92% of hands, because a ten-value hole card ends the hand at once. A player 18 against a 7 is a comfortable stand. The 10 does the same thing one total higher, finishing on 20 in 34.00% of hands, which makes a dealer ten the card that beats the most standing hands.
The 2 is the opposite case. Its bust chance looks healthy, but 15.13 of its 35.35 points are busts on exactly 22. At Free Bet Blackjack a dealer 22 pushes every standing hand, so the 2 loses almost half its bust value there. A 6 under H17 still busts 35.00% of the time on 23 or more.
Why the ace is the dealer’s strongest card
Three properties stack up. First, an ace turns into a natural 30.87% of the time with six decks, the single largest outcome in its row. Second, an ace can never bust on the dealer’s next card, because it drops to one. Third, an ace plus any 6 to 10 is already a finished hand between 17 and 21.
Put together, the ace leaves the fewest weak paths of any upcard. Even when the hole card is small, the dealer often reaches a soft total and keeps drawing safely. So the ace row shows the lowest bust probability on the page, and the H17 rule bites hardest there, turning a frozen soft 17 into 18 to 21.
Insurance is the bet built on this upcard, and the numbers settle it. It pays 2:1, so it needs the dealer to hold a natural more than a third of the time, 33.33%. With six decks the ace makes a natural 30.87% of the time. That gap, not a hunch, is why basic strategy declines insurance and even money.
Blackjack odds before and after the peek
At a peek table the dealer checks the hole card under a 10 or an ace before you act, and the hand ends at once if it is blackjack. If play continues, the natural is ruled out. Your decision is made with that knowledge, so the after-peek rows below are the blackjack odds that apply when you choose.
| Upcard, 6 decks | View | Natural | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | before peek | 7.72% | 11.19% | 11.17% | 11.19% | 34.00% | 3.48% | 21.25% |
| 10 | after peek | ruled out | 12.13% | 12.10% | 12.13% | 36.84% | 3.77% | 23.02% |
| A, S17 | before peek | 30.87% | 13.00% | 13.08% | 13.06% | 13.09% | 5.35% | 11.55% |
| A, S17 | after peek | ruled out | 18.81% | 18.92% | 18.89% | 18.94% | 7.74% | 16.70% |
| A, H17 | before peek | 30.87% | 5.73% | 14.28% | 14.29% | 14.33% | 6.59% | 13.91% |
| A, H17 | after peek | ruled out | 8.28% | 20.66% | 20.68% | 20.73% | 9.53% | 20.13% |
The 10 changes little, because a natural was only 7.72% of its outcomes. The ace changes a lot. Its dealer bust chance rises from 11.55% to 16.70% at an S17 table once the natural is gone, and from 13.91% to 20.13% under H17. Every other line grows by the same factor, because the naturals are simply taken out.
No-hole-card tables use the before-peek rows. Games Global’s Classic Blackjack, dealt at Betway in Ontario, takes its second dealer card only after you act, on five decks with the dealer standing on soft 17. A dealer natural there takes doubles and splits too, and the game publishes a 99.42% return, a 0.58% edge.
Chance of a natural, by deck count
A natural is an ace with a ten-value card as the first two cards. You and the dealer each have the same chance on a fresh shoe, and fewer decks raise it slightly, because removing the first ace from a small deck leaves the tens a larger share. Above six decks the change is too small to show.
| Decks in the shoe | Chance of a natural | Roughly one hand in |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.83% | 21 |
| 2 | 4.78% | 21 |
| 6 | 4.75% | 21 |
| 8 | 4.75% | 21 |
The payout on that natural matters far more than how often it arrives. At 3:2 a C$10 blackjack returns C$15 in winnings, and at 6:5 it returns C$12. Over about one hand in 21, that difference adds up quickly. The tables page lists the payout for every game we track, and 6:5 games sit near the bottom.
Your bust probability when hitting a hard total
When you hit a hard total, only the next card counts. The table uses a full shoe, so it ignores the cards already on the felt. Because every rank appears in the same proportion in one deck or eight, the figures are identical for every deck count. Each step up removes one more rank from the safe list.
| Your hard total | Cards that bust you | Bust probability (1, 2, 6 or 8 decks) |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10, J, Q, K | 30.77% |
| 13 | 9 and ten-value | 38.46% |
| 14 | 8 to ten-value | 46.15% |
| 15 | 7 to ten-value | 53.85% |
| 16 | 6 to ten-value | 61.54% |
| 17 | 5 to ten-value | 69.23% |
| 18 | 4 to ten-value | 76.92% |
| 19 | 3 to ten-value | 84.62% |
| 20 | 2 to ten-value | 92.31% |
A hard 16 busts on more than three draws in five, and many players stop reading there. The figure alone does not decide anything. Standing on 16 wins only when the dealer busts, so the real question is always a comparison between your bust chance and how often a stiff total survives against that particular upcard.
Blackjack Odds for the Dealer vs Odds for the Player
Basic strategy is the play that gives up the least on average. The odds above show where every cell on the strategy chart comes from. Take hard 16 against a 10 after the peek: standing loses to every dealer 17 to 21, which is 76.98% of outcomes. Hitting busts 61.54% of the time but can still reach 17 to 21.
Hard 12 shows the line moving. Against a 4, 5 or 6, the dealer busts between 39.58% and 42.28% of the time, and hitting a 12 busts 30.77%, so the chart stands. Against a 2 or 3 the dealer’s bust probability drops to 35.35% and 37.42%, and the chart hits. Against a 7 it hits as well.
Each departure from the chart has a cost that compounds over thousands of hands. Standing on 12 against a 7, for example, leaves a 26.19% dealer bust chance as your only route, while the dealer finishes on 17 in 36.92% of hands. The calculator shows the edge for your table’s full rule set rather than a single cell.
The numbers here describe long-run frequencies. They do not change the next card, and they never turn the game in your favour. Blackjack odds with basic strategy on every decision still leave the house an edge: 0.35% at Atlantic City Blackjack, eight decks with the dealer standing, and 0.53% at Evolution’s Infinite Blackjack.
Knowing that a dealer six busts 42.28% of the time is one step; standing on twelve against it without thinking is another. The blackjack trainer deals hands against every upcard on six-deck rules and names the chart play after each decision, so the odds on this page turn into habits at the table.
Checking which set of odds your table uses
Before applying any row on this page, read three lines in the game’s rules panel: how many decks, whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17, and whether the dealer peeks. Those three facts pick the column. The live blackjack studios print them in the help screen, and RNG games list them under the game rules.
Most tables in our register stand on soft 17, so the S17 columns fit nearly all of Evolution’s and Pragmatic Play’s live games. Games Global’s Vegas Downtown and Vegas Single Deck and Evolution’s Infinite Fun Fun 21 hit it. The ace and the 6 move most between the two columns, so check those hands first.